Orion Precision Machining
$28.4M revenue · 84 employees · Ohio
Orion is a tier-2 aerospace machining shop founded in 1994. Revenue is up 9% year over year, adjusted EBITDA is 22%, and the founder wants to exit inside 18 months. One customer is a third of the book, the plant manager is 63, and an unsolicited LOI just landed at $30.5M. Every BK-OS module below runs against the same underlying company file.
The question on the table
Do we take the $30.5M offer now, or spend eighteen months de-risking the business and sell for materially more?
Company file
- Revenue (TTM)
- $28.4M
- Adjusted EBITDA
- $6.26M (22.0%)
- Headcount
- 84
- Founded
- 1994
- Owner age
- 61
- Offer on the table
- $30.5M
What the system found
+$8.9M
Modeled value created by an 18-month de-risk plan
34% → 19%
Top-customer concentration after the diversification track
11 hrs/wk
Owner time returned by automation and brief synthesis
42 days
Diligence time removed by having the file already assembled
BK-OS runs the whole company through eight analytical layers, then reduces it to one recommendation with the math attached.
BK-OS · Run All Layers
The recommendation
Eight analytical layers, one call
Recommendation: decline the $30.5M offer, execute an 18-month de-risking program, and re-market in Q3 of next year at a target range of $38M–$41M.
The offer prices Orion at 4.9x adjusted EBITDA. Comparable aerospace machining transactions in the $5M–$8M EBITDA band cleared 6.2x–7.1x over the trailing eight quarters. The discount is not a market discount — it is a risk discount, and it is concentrated in three fixable items: a single customer at 34% of revenue, a plant manager with no documented successor, and quality certifications that lapse inside the diligence window.
Each of the three is addressable in twelve to eighteen months without new capital. Together they account for roughly 1.5 turns of multiple. Holding is the higher expected-value path even after discounting for market risk and eighteen more months of owner effort.
| Path | Probability | Net to owner | Time | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accept the LOI now | — | $26.1M after tax | 90 days | Low |
| De-risk 18 months, re-market | 62% | $33.4M after tax | 21 months | Medium |
| De-risk, market softens | 26% | $27.8M after tax | 21 months | Medium |
| De-risk, lose the anchor customer | 12% | $21.2M after tax | 21 months | High |
| Expected value of holding | — | $30.6M after tax | 21 months | — |
- HighBoeing represents 34% of revenue on a 12-month rolling contract
No long-term agreement, no minimum volume, and the buyer's diligence team will apply a concentration haircut of roughly 0.8x EBITDA. Two qualified prospects in medical-device machining can absorb 9% of capacity within four quarters using existing equipment.
- HighPlant manager is 63 with no documented successor
He personally holds the setup knowledge for the five-axis cell that produces 41% of gross margin. Nothing is written down. A buyer will either escrow against it or discount for it.
- Medium$420k of owner compensation add-backs are undocumented
The add-backs are legitimate but unsupported by a formal comp study. A quality-of-earnings provider will disallow roughly $140k of them, which is $900k of enterprise value at 6.4x.
- MediumAS9100D certification renews inside the likely diligence window
A lapse or finding during diligence is the single most common cause of retrade in aerospace machining transactions. Move the audit forward two quarters.
- LowERP migration one-timers are material but defensible
$186k of implementation cost is a genuine non-recurring item with vendor invoices supporting it. Package the documentation now rather than reconstructing it under a 45-day clock.
"I had three advisors tell me the offer was fair. None of them could tell me what would make it unfair."
BK-OS · Decision Analytics
Monte Carlo across four scenarios
10,000 iterations on revenue, margin, multiple, and close probability
| Scenario | Weight | Mean NPV | P10 | P50 | P90 | P(profit) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | 45% | $33.4M | $28.9M | $33.1M | $38.2M | 97% |
| Upside | 17% | $41.7M | $36.8M | $41.4M | $47.0M | 99% |
| Soft market | 26% | $27.8M | $23.1M | $27.9M | $32.4M | 88% |
| Anchor loss | 12% | $21.2M | $16.4M | $21.0M | $26.3M | 61% |
Expected value
$30.6M
vs $26.1M net on the offer
5% worst case
$17.9M
CVaR across all scenarios
Chance of beating the offer
71%
Breakeven multiple
5.4x
Below this, take the offer
What would this look like for your business?
Orion Precision Machining is illustrative. The tools are not. Point them at your own numbers and you will have the first version of this file inside an afternoon.